Thursday, May 15, 2014

The probability of getting murdered

Well, it was one in 16,000 in 2012 according to a UN report quoted in an article in the Economist. How to shorten the odds? The Economist offers useful tips:
First, don’t live in the Americas or Africa, where murder rates (one in 6,100 and one in 8,000 respectively) are more than four times as high as the rest of the world. Western Europe and East Asia are the safest regions....Next, be a woman. Your chance of being murdered will be barely a quarter what it would be were you a man. In fact, steer clear of men altogether: nearly half of all female murder-victims are killed by their partner or another (usually male) family member. Then, sit back and grow older. From the age of 30 onwards, murder rates fall steadily in most places. But not everywhere. Europeans are more at risk in middle age than in youth.
Surprisingly, when it comes to murder, crime pays. Only 43% of murders result in convictions. In the Americas, you can literally get away with murder: the probability that you will escape justice is 0.75.

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